Forecasting the Future: How Predictive Analytics Is Transforming Neonatal Jaundice Management

By: Anduin Anderle, Neonatal Marketing Manager, Neonatal Care and Thermoregulation, Dräger Inc.

Jaundice is the most frequently encountered medical condition among newborns during their first two weeks of life.1 Approximately 60% of full term and 80% of preterm babies develop clinical jaundice in the first week after birth.1

For parents, discharge day should be a celebration, but joy can turn to disappointment when bilirubin levels rise, sending newborns to the NICU for phototherapy or when yellowing appears days later at home. These discoveries often trigger fear and frustration—packing up the baby, rushing to the pediatrician or ER, and bracing for tests or an overnight stay. What should be bonding time instead becomes anxiety, logistical hurdles and disrupted breastfeeding. 

The burden also extends beyond the home, as clinicians must identify and manage jaundice risk before bilirubin peaks, often within a short postpartum window. Missed cases or delayed follow-up make readmissions inevitable, disrupting care teams and straining capacity.

Jaundice isn’t just emotionally taxing, it’s costly. It is the leading cause of newborn readmissions in the first month, adding about $700M annually to U.S. healthcare spending, straining resources and contributing to staff burnout.2,3,4

With healthcare systems facing mounting financial and staffing pressures, there is a growing need for evidence-based tools that improve communication with parents, allow for proactive treatment, and help keep babies safely out of the hospital whenever possible.

Harnessing the power of predictive analytics offers a way forward. By turning vast amounts of clinical data into actionable forecasts, predictive tools give clinicians the ability to anticipate bilirubin trends before they become critical, changing the trajectory of care for newborns and their families.

Neonatal Jaundice: Common but Not Always Harmless

Neonatal jaundice primarily results from the normal metabolic transition from the womb following birth.5 But in 10% of all newborns, bilirubin levels increase to levels that require treatment, making phototherapy treatment necessary.6

A key challenge for clinicians is assessing jaundice risk during the first hours of life, often before bilirubin levels peak and while newborns are still in the hospital.7,8 While the average length of stay postpartum for a vaginal birth in the U.S. is 48 hours, bilirubin levels usually peak between the third and seventh day after birth.9,10

Early discharge protocols mean that many babies leave the hospital before significant bilirubin rises occur, and some may not receive adequate risk assessment or follow-up.11 This gap creates the potential for underdiagnosis, delayed phototherapy, and, in rare but serious cases, bilirubin-induced neurologic dysfunction (BIND), including kernicterus. 12

Guidelines and Gaps

The 2022 American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) Guideline on hyperbilirubinemia replaced the 2004 version, providing clear recommendations for discharge and follow-up.13,14 When effectively implemented, it can reduce adverse outcomes, with one study showing jaundice-related readmissions declining from 3.9% to 2.1%.15

However, guideline implementation presents several barriers:15

  • Complexity requires thorough staff training, with researchers finding “significant increase in lack of adherence” to the 2022 Guideline versus 200416
  • Current bilirubin risk assessments based on limited number of clinical parameters8

Up to 80% of neonates change risk zones after discharge, but current tools only display measured, not predicted, bilirubin values8,17

Parents as Partners in Prevention

The AAP emphasizes that parent education is critical to preventing severe jaundice. Families should leave the hospital with:

  • Written information about jaundice
  • Their baby’s bilirubin level and other relevant labs
  • Clear instructions for follow-up appointments and warning signs to watch for

As Harvard Health advises: “Before going home, you should receive written information about jaundice, your baby’s bilirubin level, and exactly when your baby should be seen again.”18

But even with education, the lack of forward-looking tools means that some cases slip through the cracks.13

The Promise of Predictive Analytics

The Dräger BiliPredics solution uses a proprietary algorithm to forecast an infant’s risk of jaundice up to 60 hours in advance, helping clinicians identify at-risk newborns before bilirubin levels peak. Delivered as an easy-to-use web application, it supports more informed clinical decision-making, reduces unplanned readmissions, and improves family satisfaction by enabling proactive, preventative care.8,13

The solution:

  • Aligns with the 2022 AAP Guideline
  • Displays intuitive visual graphs for risk tracking
  • Generates reports that can be shared with families and pediatricians

A recent multi-site clinical trial demonstrated that use of Dräger BiliPredics significantly improved post-discharge risk identification and communication across care teams.8

Real-World Impact: Benefits for Parents, Clinicians and Hospitals

The use of predictive analytics in jaundice management can offer benefits throughout the continuum of care.8

For clinicians:

  • Identify at-risk infants before discharge for timely intervention
  • Replace unplanned readmissions with scheduled follow-ups
  • Support evidence-based decisions aligned with AAP Guidelines
  • Improve communication with families and primary care providers

For parents:

  • Provide clear communication about jaundice risk
  • Reduce disruptive readmissions through proactive management
  • Support bonding and peace of mind
  • Share reports with pediatricians for continuity of care

For babies:

  • Enable timely, family-centered interventions, as indicated in the proposed NICU Baby’s Bill of Rights19
  • Minimize preventable complications and hospital stressors

For hospitals and health systems:

  • Improve discharge planning with predictive insights
  • Avoid unnecessary phototherapy, extended stays and readmissions
  • Support safer home transitions while optimizing staff time

Conclusion

Despite being common in newborns, neonatal jaundice still leads to unnecessary readmissions, preventable complications and emotional turmoil for families. The AAP’s Guideline provides a valuable framework, but limited predictive capability and lack of personalized medicine reduce its impact. Predictive analytics offers a transformative solution, enabling clinicians to forecast bilirubin trends, intervene earlier and communicate risk more effectively. By adopting these tools, NICUs can ease staff burden, strengthen family-centered care and set a new standard for outcomes.

References

  1. Ansong-Assoku B, Adnan M, Daley SF, Ankola PA. Neonatal Jaundice. 2024 Feb 12. In: StatPearls [Internet]. Treasure Island (FL): StatPearls Publishing; 2025 Jan–. PMID: 30422525.
  2. Brown AK, Damus K, Kim MH, King K, Harper R, Campbell D, Crowley KA, Lakhani M, Cohen-Addad N, Kim R, Harin A. Factors relating to readmission of term and near-term neonates in the first two weeks of life. Early Discharge Survey Group of the Health Professional Advisory Board of the Greater New York Chapter of the March of Dimes. J Perinat Med. 1999;27(4):263-75. doi: 10.1515/JPM.1999.037. PMID: 10560077.
  3. Mitra S, Rennie J. Neonatal jaundice: aetiology, diagnosis and treatment. Br J Hosp Med (Lond). 2017 Dec 2;78(12):699-704. doi: 10.12968/hmed.2017.78.12.699. PMID: 29240507.
  4. Schiltz NK, Finkelstein Rosenthal B, Crowley MA, Koroukian SM, Nevar A, Meropol SB, Cuttler L. Rehospitalization during the first year of life by insurance status. Clin Pediatr (Phila). 2014 Aug;53(9):845-53. doi: 10.1177/0009922814536924. PMID: 24899633; PMCID: PMC4412744.
  5. Wong RJ, Bhutani VK, Stevenson DK. The Importance of Hemolysis and Its Clinical Detection in Neonates with Hyperbilirubinemia. Curr Pediatr Rev. 2017;13(3):193-198. doi: 10.2174/1573396313666170807121444. PMID: 28782473
  6. Bhutani VK, Stark AR, Lazzeroni LC, Poland R, Gourley GR, Kazmierczak S, Meloy L, Burgos AE, Hall JY, Stevenson DK; Initial Clinical Testing Evaluation and Risk Assessment for Universal Screening for Hyperbilirubinemia Study Group. Predischarge screening for severe neonatal hyperbilirubinemia identifies infants who need phototherapy. J Pediatr. 2013 Mar;162(3):477-482.e1. doi: 10.1016/j.jpeds.2012.08.022. PMID: 23043681.
  7. Balasundaram P, Campbell D. Monitoring Neonatal Bilirubin after Discharge. Pediatr Rev. 2023 Feb 1;44(2):110-113. doi: 10.1542/pir.2022-005522. PMID: 36720677.
  8. Steffens B, Koch G, Engel C, Franz AR, Pfister M, Wellmann S. Assessing accuracy of BiliPredics algorithm in predicting individual bilirubin progression in neonates – results from a prospective multi-center study. Front Digit Health. 2025 Feb 18;7:1497165. doi: 10.3389/fdgth.2025.1497165. PMID: 40041127; PMCID: PMC11878101.
  9. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine; Health and Medicine Division; Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education; Board on Children, Youth, and Families; Committee on Assessing Health Outcomes by Birth Settings; Backes EP, Scrimshaw SC, editors. Birth Settings in America: Outcomes, Quality, Access, and Choice. Washington (DC): National Academies Press (US); 2020 Feb 6. 
  10. Mayo Clinic. Infant Jaundice. Available at: https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/infant-jaundice/symptoms-causes/syc-20373865
  11. Challenge of early discharge – Newborn assessment for jaundice. Canadian Paediatric Surveillance Program. 
  12. Lee B, Piersante T, Calkins KL. Neonatal Hyperbilirubinemia. Pediatr Ann. 2022 Jun;51(6):e219-e227. doi: 10.3928/19382359-20220407-02. PMID: 35667102.
  13. Kemper AR, Newman TB, Slaughter JL, Maisels MJ, Watchko JF, Downs SM, Grout RW, Bundy DG, Stark AR, Bogen DL, Holmes AV, Feldman-Winter LB, Bhutani VK, Brown SR, Maradiaga Panayotti GM, Okechukwu K, Rappo PD, Russell TL. Clinical Practice Guideline Revision: Management of Hyperbilirubinemia in the Newborn Infant 35 or More Weeks of Gestation. Pediatrics. 2022 Sep;150(3):e2022058859. doi: 10.1542/peds.2022-058859. PMID: 35927462.
  14. Chastain AP, Geary AL, Bogenschutz KM. Managing neonatal hyperbilirubinemia: An updated guideline. JAAPA. 2024 Oct 1;37(10):19-25. doi: 10.1097/01.JAA.0000000000000120. Epub 2024 Sep 24. PMID: 39259272.
  15. Sarathy L, et al. Bilirubin Measurement and Phototherapy Use After the AAP 2022 Newborn Hyperbilirubinemia Guideline. Pediatrics. 2024 Apr;153(4):e2023063323. doi:10.1542/peds.2023-063323. PMID: 38482582.
  16. Nissimov S, Kohn A, Keidar R, Livne A, Berkovitz Y, Morag I. Real-World Outcomes of the 2022 American Academy of Pediatrics Hyperbilirubinemia Guideline. J Paediatr Child Health. 2025 Jun 23. doi: 10.1111/jpc.70124. PMID: 40551425.
  17. Maisels MJ. Managing the jaundiced newborn: a persistent challenge. CMAJ. 2015 Mar 17;187(5):335-343. doi:10.1503/cmaj.122117.
  18. Harvard Health Publishing. New guidelines on newborn jaundice: What parents need to know. November 2, 2022. Available at: https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/newborn-jaundice-what-parents-need-to-know-2021020421886
  19. H.Res.236 – Expressing support for the goals of a “NICU Baby’s Bill of Rights”. March 21, 2025. Available at: https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-resolution/236/all-info

Learn more about Draeger Inc.

Dräger Inc. helps create a safe and nurturing environment for babies, family, and staff. We provide neonatal support, thermoregulation therapies, jaundice management, intra and inter-hospital transport solutions and ergonomic workplace design and planning. Our goal is to provide the most effective solutions that allow caregivers to work efficiently, parents to nurture, and infants to thrive. Care for newborns like never before.
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The material presented in this blog represents the opinion of the author(s) and not necessarily the views of Synova Associates. Synova Associates does not endorse any specific products or organizations but strives to connect its industry partners with leaders interested in product/educational innovation.

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